Saturday, July 20, 2024

World Bank downgrades Thailand’s growth outlook to 2.4% due to declining exports

The World Bank revised down Thailand’s 2024 GDP growth forecast to 2.4% from 2.8%, citing weaker exports and public investment. Consumer spending, tourism, and export rebound are driving growth.

World Bank Downgrades Thailand’s 2024 GDP Growth Forecast to 2.4%

The World Bank has revised Thailand’s 2024 GDP growth forecast down to 2.4% from 2.8%, citing factors like weaker-than-expected exports and public investment in the early part of the year. This downgrade comes despite an improvement from the 1.9% growth experienced in 2023. The latest projection represents a 0.4 percentage point drop from previous estimates, as highlighted in the Thailand Economic Monitor report.

Factors Influencing Thailand’s Revised Growth Forecast

The downward revision in Thailand’s growth outlook is primarily attributed to weaker exports, resulting in the adjustment from the initial 2.8% projection to the revised 2.4%. The World Bank report underscores the importance of private consumption and tourism in driving Thailand’s GDP growth this year, despite the lower forecast. As a result, the country’s economic growth is expected to be driven by consumer spending, tourism recovery, and export rebound.

Future Outlook: Thailand’s Economic Growth and Fiscal Trends

Looking ahead, the World Bank anticipates a pick-up in Thailand’s GDP expansion to 2.8% in 2025, signaling a potential improvement in economic growth for the country. The report also projects foreign tourist arrivals to increase to 36.1 million in 2024 and reach 41.1 million in 2025, approaching pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, public debt is projected to rise to 64.6% in fiscal year 2025, with a focus on fiscal stimulus measures to boost consumption in line with the government’s medium-term fiscal framework.

Source : World Bank downgrades Thailand’s growth outlook to 2.4% due to declining exports

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