Tuesday, April 16, 2024

ADB Lowers Growth Forecast for Developing Asia Amid worsening global conditions

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its economic growth forecasts for developing Asia and the Pacific amid a worsened global outlook.

The region’s economy will grow 4.2% this year and 4.6% next year, ADB said in a regular supplement to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2022, released today. ADB estimated in September that the economy would grow 4.3% in 2022 and 4.9% in 2023.

Robust consumption and tourism recovery

Even with the downgraded forecasts, developing Asia will still do better than other regions globally, both in terms of growth and inflation. ADB’s growth forecast for Southeast Asia this year was raised to 5.5% from 5.1%, amid robust consumption and tourism recovery in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam.

Projections for next year, however, were lowered to 4.7% from 5.0% due to weakening global demand. The growth forecast for the Caucasus and Central Asia this year was upgraded to 4.8% from 3.9%, while the projection for the Pacific was raised to 5.3% from 4.7%, due to a strong tourism recovery in Fiji.

Monetary policy tightening

Monetary policy tightening by central banks globally and in the region, the protracted Russian invasion of Ukraine, and recurring lockdowns in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are slowing down developing Asia’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Restrictions under the “zero-COVID” approach, along with a struggling property market, have led to another downgrade of the PRC’s growth outlook.

“Asia and the Pacific will…

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