Thursday, June 20, 2024

Thai export recovery has stalled, yet growth in 2024 is expected to remain positive

Thai exports increased in February, but growth slowed compared to previous months. Exports to some countries declined, leading to a trade deficit. SCB EIC forecasts lower export growth due to global demand challenges.

Increasing Import Values and Trade Deficit

Import values, particularly from China and Europe, have risen, resulting in a trade deficit. Although March is expected to see a decline in exports due to a high base effect, exports related to military drills may help offset this decrease. SCB EIC predicts a 3.1% export growth for 2024, lower than previous estimates, citing challenges in adapting to changing global demand patterns.

Slowing Thai Export Recovery

In February 2024, the value of Thai exports only increased by 3.6% year-on-year, a significant drop from the 10% growth seen in the previous month. Exports of agricultural and manufacturing products have stalled, while agro-industrial, mining, and fuel products have contracted, indicating a slowdown in short-term recovery.

Uneven Export Growth to Key Destinations

Exports to key destinations have shown uneven growth, with robust expansions in exports to the US and Switzerland, but contractions in exports to China, Japan, and the Middle East. The trade deficit persists as imports of capital and consumer goods, primarily from Europe and China, continue to increase.

Source : Thai export recovery has stalled, yet growth in 2024 is expected to remain positive

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