The IMF projects Thailand’s GDP to grow by 4.4% in 2024, driven by improved external demand and private consumption, but the Ministry of Finance downgrades 2023 growth to 2.8%.
IMF Projects 4.4% GDP Growth for Thailand in 2024
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Thailand’s GDP to grow by 4.4% in 2024, a significant increase from the 2.5% growth seen in 2023. The economic recovery is expected to gain momentum in 2024, driven by improvements in external demand and robust growth in private consumption supported by government fiscal stimulus.
Challenges and Recommendations
Despite the positive outlook, the IMF notes that Thailand’s economic recovery is slower than regional peers and faces uncertainty, with risks tilted to the downside. The organization encourages Thailand to continue gradual policy normalization, implement structural reforms, and maintain a neutral fiscal stance with targeted support for vulnerable groups to address poverty and inequality. The Bank of Thailand’s current neutral monetary policy stance is seen as appropriate, but authorities should be prepared to tighten monetary policy if inflationary risks materialize.
Downgraded GDP Projection by Thai Ministry of Finance
In separate news, the Thai Ministry of Finance has downgraded its projection for the country’s economic growth to 2.8% in 2024, a figure below the IMF forecast. Last year’s GDP growth is expected to be 1.8%, down from the previous estimate of 2.6% in 2022. Official GDP data is set to be published by the National Economic and Social Development Council on Feb. 19.