Wansquare asked a panel of economists and business leaders for their forecasts for 2023. Here is what our chief economist Jean-Christophe Caffet had to say. What is your outlook for the global economy? Have you developed several scenarios depending on how the war in Ukraine develops?The consequences of the war in Ukraine are severe and, in principle, lasting. However, they took longer than initially expected to have an impact on global economic growth, despite the acceleration of inflation caused by the sharp rise in commodity prices, particularly energy. With the exception of China, 2022 will therefore have been a much better year than we had feared in the days following the invasion of Ukraine. There are three main reasons for this discrepancy, if not in forecasting, then at least in the timing of the estimated effects of the conflict: the post-pandemic rebound that is still at work and the rapid reopening of many economies after the Omicron wave; the quasi-continuous attenuation, from then on, of disruptions to global value chains, despite the Chinese confinements of the second quarter; and the strong dissaving of agents, especially households – with the reserves accumulated during the pandemic acting as a cushion.The emergency measures taken to deal with the energy crisis, particularly in Europe, have also played their part in preserving activity and, to some extent, social stability. But all these elements cannot play out forever, and the outlook for 2023 is gloomy, to say the least, regardless of how the conflict in Ukraine develops. We expect global growth to be below 2% next year, compared to an average of more than 3.0% over the last ten years. Is a recession inevitable in Europe in the coming months? And in France? A recession in Europe seems quite possible, if not highly probable, at the turn of the year. In fact, we are probably already in a…
Recession, inflation, Ukraine, China, monetary policy, etc.
