While the global economic outlook remains uncertain and closely linked to inflation trends and central bank monetary policy decisions, our concerns about agricultural commodities were reinforced in Q2 2023. High production costs, trade tensions and increased weather risks will continue to weigh on global agricultural production in the months ahead.Although food prices have declined since mid-2022, they remain high by historical standards (Chart 1). Several countries, led by India, have announced that they will maintain during the second half of the year the restrictions on food exports introduced in response to high prices almost a year ago. These measures will continue to constrain international trade at a time when cereal stocks are highly concentrated. For example, China currently holds over 50% of the world’s wheat stocks (Chart 2).