SCB EIC downgraded the 2025 global growth forecast to 2.5% due to Trump’s policies, geopolitical tensions, and protectionism, significantly impacting investment and Thailand’s economy, despite expected Q4 growth.
SCB EIC Downgrades Economic Growth Forecast
SCB EIC has revised the global economic growth estimate for 2025 from 2.8% to 2.5%. This adjustment is driven by potential impacts from Trump’s “2.0” policies, which are expected to escalate geopolitical tensions and promote trade protectionism. While some countries, like Germany and South Korea, are strategizing responses, political instability may limit their effectiveness. The U.S. economy may experience moderate downturns, despite some tax and deregulation measures potentially enhancing domestic investments.
Thailand’s Economic Landscape: Challenges Ahead
In Q4 2024, Thailand’s economy is projected to grow by 4%, benefiting from exports, government spending, and tourism. However, starting in H2 2025, the Thai economy may face challenges from U.S. import tariffs influenced by Trump 2.0. With over 70% of Thailand’s exports falling into targeted categories such as electronics and machinery, the impact could be significant, particularly amidst China’s overcapacity issues which threaten Thai competitiveness.
Addressing Inequality for Sustainable Growth
To tackle macroeconomic disparities, Thailand must implement strategic policies that enhance resilience, skill development, and equitable resource access for low-income individuals. The country’s future economic progress relies on bridging the gap between varying financial realities among its citizens, fostering inclusive growth amidst an uncertain global landscape. Addressing these challenges is essential for long-term stability and prosperity.
Source : Thai Economy Set to Grow in Q4 but Likely to Face Challenges from Trump 2.0 in 2025
